What’s going on with consumer delinquency?

Depends on who you ask, and where you look.

Marketwatch.com addresses this issue in a mid-June 2022 article. Excerpts follow:

Are credit card delinquencies high? Deutsche Bank explains why it matters how they are tracked…Concerns that the U.S. economy could be heading for a recession mount as inflation remains high and the central bank moves to tighten monetary policy. Those pressures have put renewed focus on the financial health of consumers, as soaring prices for gas, groceries and other expenses eat away at savings and paychecks…Credit cards often serve as a first place to look for signs of consumer distress. Still, it’s possible to get a vastly different picture of the delinquency rate…depending on how late payments have been reported, according to a new Deutsche Bank report.

At the high end, the New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel and Equifax data (NY Fed/Equifax) showed a 8.4% credit card delinquency rate in the first quarter of 2022, by including the portion of payments late 90 days or more…The Federal Reserve reported a 1.7% delinquency rate, by focusing on credit cards past due 30 days or more for the same stretch, while credit rating agency Fitch focused on delinquencies of 60 days or more, reporting a small 0.6% rate.

Questions remain over how past due debt is reported. ‘A 90+ day rate should be lower than the 30+ day rate…so what gives?’ Deutsche analysts wrote, in a Friday client note…Digging deeper, they noted that the NY Fed/Equifax consumer credit panel delinquency data included defaulted loans still in collections, while the Fed data from the Call reports and the Fitch ABS index didn’t.

Then, there are credit industry insights from Transunion.com showing first quarter data broken down by asset class type. Charts below include credit cards, auto loans, unsecured personal loans, and mortgage loans.

Q1 2022 credit card trend

^{*Note: Originations are viewed one quarter in arrears to account for reporting lag.}

Q1 2022 auto loan trends 

^{*Note: Originations are viewed one quarter in arrears to account for reporting lag.
**Data from S&P Global MobilityAutoCreditInsight, viewed one quarter in arrears.}

Q1 2022 unsecured personal loan trends 

^{*Note: Originations are viewed one quarter in arrears to account for reporting lag.}
 

Q1 2022 mortgage trends 

^{* Originations are viewed one quarter in arrears to account for reporting lag.}